Why Democrats Fail on Election Day in Georgia - Part I

A HISTORY OF FAILED APPROACHES
The challenges we face as a party are not insurmountable. What is clear however is that the top-down strategies we have developed and run with over the last decade have not worked. There are many reasons for that problem
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The State Party’s most significant challenge is the lack of a significant field organization and a stark failure of what goes for infrastructure to deliver the vote for our candidates. Our strategies fail because we do not have sufficient boots on the ground in enough places or the right places or the right time to get things done. A realistic assessment of what we have been able to achieve using a “159 County Strategy” or a Metro Atlanta Strategy or even a Coordinated Campaign Strategy is that they have not worked at a statewide level. 

The main reason for this is that the strategy’s success is premised largely on the notion that the county parties and traditional allies, lie Unions, Civil Rights organizations, church-based organizations and the campaigns themselves will be able to muster the resources to wage an effective Get Out the Vote effort. For the last 12 years at least this game plan has failed, mortally.

The State Party keeps trying this in various forms but it continues to come up short.

The most recent iteration was a call for 5% greater Democratic turnout in every Georgia County -- a seemingly achievable goal -- to close the gap with the Republican Standard Bearer and support down ballot candidates. It was a call that went largely unanswered.

• Fifteen Counties, less than one in ten, achieved the goal and the net effect was 7,633 votes compared to 2008.

• 36 counties, less than one in four, got better Democratic numbers than in 2008. The difference amounted to less than 13,500 votes.

• Only 1/3rd of those 31 most reliable Democratic Counties did better than they did 4 years ago and the 31 combined represented a net loss of 50,000 votes compared to 2008.

The 2012 numbers suggest a significant problem with GOTV efforts using this method. To be clear, strategies employed early in the decade fared no better and there is little to suggest that 2014 will be any different. Conventional wisdom and common sense suggests that Georgia Democrats are likely to lose all statewide races in 2014 unless we try a new approach.

The State Party does not have the infrastructure that is necessary to go out and beat the bushes to get the needed voters to the polls and it has tended to rely on either the county parties or the Unions and Civil Rights group to get out he votes, but it clearly has not been enough. We need to understand the nature of the problem.

Oh Good Grief. Not Again??!!??!

The Dangerous Reliance on the Inevitabiity of  Demographic Shift


There is a commonly held belief in Democratic circles that it is inevitable that by 2016 this state will be purple. The notion is based largely on a belief that an influx of Hispanic residents and an aging Republican base will allow us to pull even.

It is true that the GOP numbers are not pacing population growth and that they have maxed out their potential. It is true that “replacements voters” will be far more likely to be ideologically skewed to the Democratic Party in substantial ways. It is true that the Hispanic population is growing. But it is also true that the margin between the parties is increasing rather than decreasing.  But...

• There are 100,000 self-identifying Hispanic voters in Georgia, but over 850,000 Hispanics living here. That means about 12% of the adult Latino population is registered to vote and many may not be eligible.

• Half of the registered Hispanic voters were registered since the end of 2007. That’s great but it is only 50,000 voters and only 22,000 of those actually voted.

• While there are substantial shifts in the composition of the population that has not yet translated into any movement in the composition of the electorate at all in the last three elections.

• As importantly, it appears that only 20 to 30% of whites are voting for Democrats. And while there might be credible anecdotal information that whites under 35 might be trending Democratic, they certainly are not replacing older whites who are “exiting” the electorate. Moreover, of the 1.03 M Georgians under 30 who were registered prior to the 2010 Election only 13% showed up in both 2010 and 2012 and 53% never showed up at all.

• Finally, there is scarce evidence that the influx and influence of white transplants from “bluer” areas of the country to the Atlanta has had much effect, if any, on Democratic prospects in Georgia. The Atlanta region has grown by over 3 Million inhabitants since 1990 and accounted for 72% of the State’s growth. But by all accounts and measures the state is redder not bluer. Metro Atlanta certainly has not gotten bluer once you  get five miles  outside the Perimeter.

There is great news on the horizon; from the AJC’s Jim Galloway:

“Last month, Gov. Nathan Deal warned the Georgia GOP of the demographic perils that lie ahead – 56 percent of the state’s public school students are non-white. A few days later, the Atlanta Regional Commission said the trend was even stronger in metro Atlanta, where 63 percent of K-12 students are non-white”.

That’s great news 10 years from now. What we must understand is that the notion that shifts in demographics based on either race or age, while real in the general population, do not necessarily translate automatically to the electorate. More dangerously, this notion creates a false hope and as a consequence reinforces a certain historical passivity when it comes to doing what is necessary to change outcomes in Georgia at the statewide level.

The bottom line is that we are not registering enough voters in Democratic areas and those we are registering are not showing up in numbers that close the numerical gap. It is the main reason we are losing.

The fundamental question that must be answered is whether the 350,000 votes we need to win statewide races in 2014 even exist? The short answer is yes, obviously.

• First of all, we know there are 1.8 Million Democrats in Georgia because they voted for the President.

• In 2010, we received 1.1M votes in the Governor’s race but lost by 260,000 votes. The simple math is that we need to get 300K from the 750K extra votes we see in Presidential years to be competitive in Gubernatorial years.

• Beyond these numbers there is another universe of 1.5 M voters who did not vote in 2012 at all with 555K of those were in reliably Democratic Counties

Fundamentally, election after election we are seeing the same numerical gap. Voters are not self-motivated in sufficient numbers and our GOTV infrastructure has not been able to motivate sufficient additional numbers to close the gap.

What makes this particularly distressing is that we keep doing the same thing over and over somehow expecting a different result.

Either  we  wait ten years.  or we fix the problem now.  350,000 vote   really is not that heavy a lift.  We simply have to get organizationally and operationally savvy as Democrats across the board.

Challenging numbers

Democratic Opportunity and Challenges Exist

There are serious problems in our most Democratic Counties with both registration and GOTV efforts that have to be understood and corrected if we are going to win ANY statewide races.

The votes clearly exist to be truly competitive in statewide races. Our challenge is, as it has been for the last 32 years, getting Democratic voters to the polls to vote for Democrats. The data suggests that as a party we have not cracked the code. And this ought to be the heart of our concern.

• Of the 825,000 registered voters in these 31 firewall counties who did not show up in 2012, 72% were in Democratic Precincts. Of the other 235,000 non-voters from GOP precincts in Democratic Counties, 40,000 were African American and another 82,000 were white women.

• Voting Age Population in our firewall counties has increased by 250,000 people, but Democratic vote totals in these 31 counties has increased by only 110,000 in gubernatorial years. At the same time, we have seen a substantial shift in the Distribution of the GOP vote. In 2002, the GOP got 25% if their vote total for the 31 counties. By 2012 they were down to 21%. Virtually all the shift in GOP distribution has been to exurban Atlanta Counties. Those Counties have grown the most rapidly over the last decade and have come to represent their firewall.

• Turnout in our Tier I counties presents our most significant challenge. To offset the migration and growth in core GOP counties (GOP totals jumped by 330,000 in those counties over the past 12 years); we have got to get greater participation levels in our core. 

Our Challenge is that it turns out that the more Democratic a precinct is, the lower the participation in the political process. In the 566 most Democratic precincts in the 2010 Mid-terms, we saw a 43% Turnout compared to a statewide Turnout of 48%. In 2012, we saw a 67% Turnout in those deeply blue precincts as opposed to the statewide turnout level of 72%.

More troubling is in the Voter Conversion Rate (actual voters among those newly registered). 

• In 2008, in these 31 counties we registered some 200,000 new voters. The conversion rate for President Obama's first election was a
  
  respectable 65% for these core counties, but in 2010 only 27% of those voters showed up and last November 49% of these voters turned out. 

• In the run-up to 2010, there were 65,000 new registrants, but only 15,000 showed up. That is less than a 25% turnout. 

• In looking at 2012 there was a turnout among newly registered voters of 61% comparerd to a statewide  turnout of 72%

So we are  doing a fine job  at Registering voters (Though a lot of that  is certainly  related to  the efforts of  Obama For America)  but  for a variety  of reasons  we are having great difficulty   in getting those  new voters  to the polls.  

All of thes issues  beg the question: 

Who's got the ball  and  what are they doing with it?

I am not inclined to point a finger in any  particular direction  but it seems to me  that  the ability to  identify new  and sporaric voters in Democratic counties and  motivate them  to get to the polls has to be someone's  responsibilty and no one is doing a particularly good job at it.

Democratic Voter Turnout...Honestly

GOP Turnout has consolidated, entrenched, intensified and stalled

Republican growth in this state has slowed tremendously in Georgia over the last decade and has actually decreased relative to Voting Age Population in Presidential Elections and is flat in gubernatorial years.

Consider

• The net change in GOP Turnout over the last four years was a scant 30,000 votes.
• The good news is that 75% of that growth was in the Bedroom Counties of Cherokee, Forsyth, Hall and North Fulton. A good bit of that growth was people moving out of the core Atlanta counties rather than migration from out of state.
• 81 counties actually saw a net decrease in GOP votes in 2012 compared to 2008; effectively zeroing out the gains made in those four North Atlanta Counties.
• Another 41 counties (primarily rural) had an increase of less than 250 comparing Romney vs. McCain.
• In the 31 reliably Democratic counties, that provide about half of the Democratic Electorate (with the exception of Fulton which is a special case), only four counties saw any increase in GOP turnout amassing just 551 new votes between them.
• In Cobb and Gwinnett, once suburban stalwarts, there were fewer than 2,000 new Republican votes in 2012 despite 30,000 new registered voters over the four year period. And while those 31 Counties contributed just over half of Democratic Vote totals, these two “Republican Stalwarts” gave the next 25% of the Democratic state totals.

At the same time, we are seeing both anecdotally and empirically greater resolve among “Older white men.”. But we are also seeing another trend in comparing 2008 and 2012. In Republican leaning precincts, white female vote totals were down by 105,000 (about 10%) among those who voted in 2008 in spite of the overall vote being down by just 23,500.

We are seeing increased primary competition on the GOP side in statewide and statehouse races (evidenced obviously by the 2012 US Senate race to replace Saxby Chambliss) and a growing divide between the Libertarian/Tea Party wing and the more moderate establishment wing of the state GOP.

All this is good news, but it is not enough to win elections. Democrats took a small step back in 2012, and while they came down from what might be considered stratospheric numbers in 2008, or our vote deficit increased by some 50,000 votes. We need to understand why we are trending in the wrong direction.

A Fresh Look at the  Democratic  Firewall

Our ability to win statewide election is determined largely by our performance in about 25% of Georgia’s 159 Counties.

There are 31 counties (Tier I & Tier II) which went Democratic in each of the last three General Elections and 26 of those went Democratic the last four cycles. These counties contributed between 49 and 52% of the statewide Democratic total in each of the last 7 election. 94% of the most reliable Democratic precincts can be found in these Counties. Practically all of the Democratic members of the both the State House and Senate hail from these counties.  

This is the Democratic Firewall.

These 31 counties fall into two tiers. Tier I are the ten core counties in the top 6 metro areas in the state. These 10 Counties account for about 48% of state Democratic totals; the other 21 counties we always win but account only for a solid 3% of the Democratic totals.

There is a third group of counties, we either won in 2012 or we got a significant vote total (about 392,000) and contribute about 23% of democratic totals.

Distribution of Democratic Vote
 by County Tier

The remaining 26% of Democratic totals (462,000) come from either very GOP stronghold counties or very rural counties making up the rest of the state. While each of Georgia’s 159 counties is obviously important to our statewide totals, our most reliable Democratic counties present both out greatest opportunity and our greatest challenges in closing the gap in 2014.

12 years ago, these Tier I and Tier II counties represented 37% of the electorate. Today, they represent 35.83%. A small decrease to be sure. But these 31 counties have a voting population of 2.75 Million Adults, only 2.1 Million are registered and only 1.36 Million of those voters got to the polls in 2012.

These are not GOP voters who somehow forgot it was Election Day.

There are serious problems in our most Democratic Counties with both registration and GOTV efforts that have to be understood and corrected if we are going to win ANY statewide races.

These are not simple issues. There are  difficult  Party bylaws issue and looming turf  battles protected  by organizational and operational  minefields that will be  hard to avoid.  Our challenges with voter turnout particularly in a post-Obama environment ought to be at the heart of  every discussion among Party  and elected officials.  

Some of us  have been having this discusson in a Facebook group  for the last four months and there is a groundswell of  support to bring  new vitality and  Vigor to this issue.    Please consider joining  the conversation.

You can also Like our Facebook Page

Article of the day

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/323233-weak-state-parties-weigh-down-senate-democrats-in-south

Weak state parties in the South risk hurting Democrats’ chances of holding — or gaining — critical Senate seats in 2014.

Struggles in Louisiana, Georgia and North Carolina could force national Democrats, and the candidates themselves, to step in with big-dollar investments to build get-out-the-vote programs that are often left to the party’s state-level operations.

“There’s a lot of drama in all of those places,” said one national Democratic strategist. “That means a lot more responsibility for coordinated campaigns in those states and really elevates the importance of field programs, things that are traditionally done by those state parties.”

All three states have endured turmoil at the top of their party structures, as scandals and power struggles have left efforts to build voter lists and recruit down-ballot candidates untended.

The consequences could be significant.  

Sens. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) and Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) face tough reelection fights, and Democrats are excited about the prospects of former nonprofit CEO Michelle Nunn (D) in Georgia.

But those candidates face increased jeopardy if the state leaders tasked with fixing their parties fail.

Read more: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/323233-weak-state-parties-weigh-down-senate-democrats-in-south#ixzz2fpDVutdw 

It is Time to Evolve The DPG!

By the most obvious measure, vote margin, Georgia Democrats continue to proceed in a fundamentally wrong direction over the last several cycles. Republican victory margins have increased by 50,000 votes in each of the least three elections. It is not that more people are voting for the GOP; our people simply are not showing up. In comparing 2008 to 2012, the GOP Turnout was flat, a mere 17,000 more votes, but Democrats were down by 85,000.

In the Gubernatorial races, the margin trend is inconclusive for a variety of reasons but the 2010 GOP margin was twice what it was in 2002.

What we need to ask is whether the numbers are just so daunting that no strategy would ever have worked and that Republican gerrymandering in the aggregate actually reflects a new reality? Are we essentially no better positioned than either Alabama or South Carolina? And if so, do we need to prepare for a long period of retrenchment and reset our hopes? If Mark Sanford can come back after his hike down the “Appalachian Trail,” is there any hope at all?

The numbers are daunting. But our challenge has little to do with some sort of sweeping Red Tide that hit us first in 1980 when Ronald Reagan captured the South and instantly transformed the Electoral math for the next generation. There are actually some very hopeful signs that the red tide has stop surging and that somewhere in the not too distant future our prospects will begin to improve. There is data out there to support such a conclusion.

But we would be mistaken to be gleeful about that prospect for a number of reasons. It could be years before things improve. We need to get 350,000 more voters to the polls in 2014 than we did in 2010. It really is that simple. If we want to compete, that is what we have to do.

The challenges facing the Democratic Party of Georgia are substantial. There certainly is a financial component that cannot be minimized.

But the truth of it is, money has come to be thought of as a leading indicator of our success far more than racking of victories or vote totals. In fact, money is actually a trailing indicator of how the electorate -- and more importantly the donor base and the volunteer base -- view the party. Money is absolutely necessary to execute a winning strategy, but we have had money in the bank in the past, and it has not solved the underlying problems that have dogged the DPG for the last decade and a half. Managing to a budget is essential. Scheduling “Call Time” with “High Dollar Donors” is certainly an issue, but we ought to be far more concerned about global participation in the DPG’s Yellow Dog (recurring small dollar donor) program. It is a far more telling indicator of where we are as a state party.

It is mu contention that that our challenges with funding, like our challenges with getting out the vote, have much more to do with the visibility and vigor of the DPG than some would like to admit. The DPG has become fundamentally, woefully, disconnected from those whose help we need the most to execute whatever strategy we devise. Money does not solve that problem. Our challenges run to issues of organization and operations and, as direct consequence, brand. If we can fix those problems in fundamental ways, the votes and the money will flow.

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Over the next several days,  I am going to be posting sections  from the Evolve Document  I penned at the beginning of the summer.   I am doing so  to elicit more comments  from a larger audience in gearing up  for  what I anticipate is going to be   a  real substantive debate withing the State Committee about  Reform.

Can the need for Party Unity trump the truly stupid actions of a "Party insiders"?

Few in the Party understand  the need to unify  the Democratic Party    more than I do,  Unity is the way to Reform.  Unity is the way to bring  High Dollar Donors  back into the party. UNITY is the only way we win  elections.

This morning's  Galloway Post  puts us  on the wrong track and Party Elders and elected officials need  to work hard at  fixing this ginned up controversy today.

This is Normal post election process

I made  a request to review the ballots myself  Wedneday or Thursday of last week.  I did so because  I  want to understand  how the vote split  urban/rural and how that might impact  Reform efforts.

I was not given immediate access to the ballots. And that kind of suprised me at first blush. I was told there is a process that needs to be adhered to (like a lot of things with the DPG  it apparently is not  written down).  I put in a formal request  with the Chair and he responded  that  he was referred to the Secretary.   It appears that Mr. Sterling's request was responded to in precisely the same manner. 

There are many reasons to  request  a review of the ballots.   and it SHOULD NEVER  be interpreted  as  a prelude to a challenge of the election result. The assumption that  a private request to see the ballots  is  ANYTHING more than just that  is dangerous.  In an email to the AJC this morning amplifying this   Sterling said that he and the Mayor  support  Dubose as Chair  and no one is protesting the results. Hopefully that puts an end to the controversy.

The ballots are public records and everyone  has the right to see them. And in fact that was  stipulated by all the candidates in lieu of a Roll call vote  that's required by the   Party  Bylaws (we have been doing signed ballots for quite some time and ignoring the  stipulation).    Former Chair  Jane Kidd chimed in this morning saying  that requests  to see ballots happens a lot.   People want to understand  the  results so they   can  not make the same mistaken assumptions  again.   There is nothing  contrversial  about this .

No one is being denied access to the Ballots. It is just "process" and insuring  the original documents  are maintained during that review process.  Completely legitimate to make a request privately  and completely legit to have  a  good  process surround the request

What the real issuse is

I am making no assumptions as to Mr. Sterling request. I don't know his motivations  but to be honest  it is none of my business or anyone else's.    That Mr. Sterling's request was made public (apparently by a third party) is what people ought to be concerned about. Bringing the  private and quiet request into  public scrutiny brings  far  more disunity than the private (below-the radar) request itself. The request was in private... just as mine was.

Look.  Politcs is  multidimensional  People need tounderstand the art of politics and the need to open mutiple diplomatic lanes of communication (nuanced or not).  People need to understand the nature of  political leverage: What it looks like, how it gets created and how it works.  People need to sit down and let politicians build  the stage necessary for  real unity to take place. The  political  contruction necessary for Democrats in Georgia  is being built as I write this.   No one  needs to be walking around with a chainsaw  and a sledgehammer.

Stoking or staging needless controversy creates  disunity. It chokes off reform... It chokes off  money. It chokes off unity.  and no one benefits.  Going to Galloway was an unbelievably asshat thing to do.  And predictably it has  backfired.  The  real question is  how does true poliitcal leadership  respond.

What I really think.

People need to be challenged for  getting involved in things  they know  very little about.  It was quiet request. The only reason anyone even knows about the request is   because someone  whispered  in  Galloway's ear. The question is who.  The leak to Galloway was  juvenile, myopic, uninformed and shameful conduct. 

Anyone  who suggests that  the election result  is in doubt or will  be challenged is a fool. It would have happened  immediately after the election and it didn't.  It's Done!

People need to follow the breadcrumbs and look  for "Party Insiders" with one-dimensional political skills in  three dimensional world; because that is where the issue is and that's the biggest obstacle  to party unity.